April Market Commentary: Squirrels, Tariffs & Long-Term Vision

By Brad Gotto & Tim Holland

In this month’s market commentary, Brad Gotto (CEO of Fiat Wealth Management) sat down with Tim Holland (Chief Investment Officer at Orion/TownSquare) to break down what’s driving the markets—and why it’s more important than ever to stay grounded.

Looking Back: A Case of the "Squirrel"

Brad opened the conversation with a light-hearted metaphor—comparing the market’s sudden focus on tariffs to the classic "squirrel!" distraction moment. Many expected early 2024 to center around tax cuts and regulatory reform. Instead, headlines have been dominated by trade policies, specifically unexpected tariff announcements.

Tim noted that the Trump administration's approach in 2024 has flipped expectations. Rather than leading with tax strategy, the administration launched straight into aggressive trade policy. The result? Market volatility, rising uncertainty, and concern about a potential tit-for-tat global trade war.

What’s the Long Game?

Tim shared his take on why the administration may be leaning into tariffs. His view: it’s rooted in a decades-old belief that American manufacturing has been unfairly weakened by globalization. While the goal may be to rebalance trade dynamics, the speed and scale of the tariff rollout have rattled markets more than anticipated.

Both Brad and Tim emphasized that while the political rhetoric may be loud, it’s crucial to separate short-term noise from long-term fundamentals.

When Bad Is Good?

They then turned to sentiment. The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey recently reported historically high levels of bearishness—readings not seen in four decades. Historically, periods of extreme pessimism tend to coincide with market bottoms, not long-term declines. Tim reminded listeners of Warren Buffett’s wisdom: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

It’s uncomfortable, but moments of widespread doubt can be fertile ground for long-term investors.

Recession Talk and GDP Data

There’s been increasing buzz around a potential recession, particularly with a negative Q1 GDP number expected. But Tim clarified: one quarter of negative GDP doesn't equal a recession. It’s likely the Q1 numbers will reflect accelerated imports—companies rushing to buy before tariffs take effect—not true economic weakness.

Tim also stressed that the U.S. economy entered 2024 on strong footing. Even if growth slows temporarily, the fundamentals remain solid.

What Should Families Do?

Brad closed the conversation with a reminder: volatility isn’t a reason to panic—it’s a reason to plan. For families working with Fiat, portfolios are built with time horizons in mind. Short-term market swings don’t change long-term goals.

He also outlined some smart opportunities in down markets: Roth conversions while account values are temporarily lower, tax-loss harvesting, and strategic RMD planning.

Above all, Brad reminded listeners that Fiat Wealth Management is built for times like these—helping families stay the course when headlines tempt them to veer off track.

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